Why Strengthening Ukraine's Military Capacity Is Essential To Stopping Putin's Aggression

The Trump administration faces a critical strategic reality: achieving sustainable peace in Ukraine requires paradoxically increasing military support to Kyiv, not reducing it. This counterintuitive approach stems from understanding Moscow’s actual position and the consequences of failing to act decisively.

Putin’s Delusion About Victory

Vladimir Putin continues to operate under a dangerous misconception—that he can ultimately prevail in Ukraine. His public statements about negotiation mask a deeper conviction that time works in Russia’s favor. The Russian leader appears willing to fob off Trump’s threats regarding sanctions, having observed the administration shift deadlines repeatedly in the past. He believes his grinding attrition strategy, which now consumes approximately 30,000 Russian lives monthly (down from 40,000 previously), combined with relentless missile and drone strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, will eventually exhaust Ukrainian resistance.

The Kremlin calculates that Western resolve will falter—that America and Europe will tire of involvement, allowing Putin to impose a settlement transforming Ukraine into a Russian satellite state. He then envisions expanding regional dominance through pressure on Poland and subjugating the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to subordinate status comparable to Hong Kong.

The Cascading Global Consequences

Should Putin succeed, the implications extend far beyond Eastern Europe. Moldova faces reabsorption into Russian orbit. NATO’s credibility deteriorates as European nations succumb to rising populist movements with pro-Moscow sympathies. The alliance effectively dissolves into a shell organization unable to function.

Most dangerously, this outcome signals to Beijing that American leadership is exhausted. Facing domestic pressures and seeking nationalist diversion, China could undertake provocations that genuinely risk military confrontation with the United States.

The Strategic Imperative

President Trump’s decisions on Ukraine in coming weeks will fundamentally shape America’s global position for decades. The path forward requires:

Military Capability Enhancement: Provide Ukraine with weapons and equipment enabling not merely defense but active counteroffensive operations. Continued territorial losses reinforce Putin’s belief that his attrition strategy succeeds.

Operational Unrestrictions: Remove constraints on Ukrainian strikes within Russian territory. Pentagon-imposed limitations inadvertently signal American reluctance to contest this war seriously—exactly the message that emboldens Putin.

Financial Pressure: Deploy comprehensive sanctions targeting Russia’s banking sector, particularly severing access to the international financial infrastructure enabling global fund transfers. Economic isolation amplifies deterrence.

Frozen Asset Redeployment: Utilize the $300 billion in seized Russian reserves to fund Ukrainian military acquisitions, transforming trapped capital into defensive capability.

Direct Supply Lines: Establish transparent weapon transfers rather than circuitous NATO routes. Indirect mechanisms undermine credibility with both adversaries and allies.

The paradox is clear: genuine peace emerges only from Ukrainian strength, never from weakness. Anything less invites the strategic catastrophe that American interests cannot afford.