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The Bank of Japan's reverse operation has changed the market landscape. With a 25 basis point rate hike implemented, pushing the interest rate directly to 0.75%—the world is watching for a rate cut window, but Japan is stepping on the gas. What is hidden behind this?
The persistent depreciation of the yen has long troubled the Japanese economy, with enormous inflationary pressures. Rate hikes are a necessity, but the cost is significant: soaring national debt, skyrocketing corporate financing costs, and sharply increased mortgage burdens. Under the confluence of negative factors, the market is re-pricing risks.
More importantly, this rate hike directly impacts the carry trade system. Funds shifting from yen-denominated borrowing to arbitrage in other assets face potential breakdowns, with short positions forced to cover, exporters under pressure, and cross-border capital flows experiencing intense volatility—liquidity chains in the crypto market are also feeling this tearing effect.
The question is sustainability: can high inflation be subdued through rate hikes? How long can fiscal pressure be sustained? This is not just Japan's issue; it has tangible impacts on the global liquidity landscape. What do you think of this move?