Messari warns that Layer-1s will continue to lose ground to Bitcoin in 2026

Source: Yellow Original Title: Messari warns that Layer-1s will continue to lose ground to Bitcoin in 2026

Original Link: https://yellow.com/es/news/messari-advierte-que-las-layer-1-seguirán-perdiendo-terreno-frente-a-bitcoin-en-2026 Bitcoin is expected to further solidify its role as the dominant form of digital currency in 2026, while most alternative Layer-1 assets continue to lose market share and monetary relevance, according to Messari.

In its outlook for 2026, Messari argues that crypto markets are entering a phase defined less by speculative cycles and more by monetary credibility.

Bitcoin will be driven by macro forces

As Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a macro asset, the firm states that traditional crypto-native frameworks, including the four-year halving cycle, are losing explanatory power.

Instead, Bitcoin’s trajectory is expected to be shaped by broader macroeconomic forces and its growing role within institutional portfolios and government balances.

“However, what we do trust is Bitcoin’s long-term monetary trajectory,” Messari wrote, adding that Bitcoin is expected to continue appreciating “in monetary terms, against both the USD and gold” over longer time horizons.

Layer-1s are losing relevance

The report presents a bleak outlook for alternative Layer-1 tokens by 2026.

Despite representing a large portion of the total crypto market capitalization, Messari concludes that most Layer-1 valuations are increasingly disconnected from revenue, usage, and on-chain economic activity.

As a result, the firm does not expect capital to rotate back into Layer-1s in a way that challenges Bitcoin’s dominance.

“Going forward, we do not expect this trend to reverse in 2026 or in the coming years,” Messari stated, noting that alternative Layer-1s are “expected to continue losing market share to BTC.”

Ethereum’s monetary role is tied to Bitcoin

Ethereum holds a more complex position in Messari’s outlook for 2026.

Although ETH has regained momentum thanks to flows into ETFs and the rise of ETH-focused digital asset treasuries, the report emphasizes that Ethereum’s monetary role remains structurally linked to Bitcoin.

Messari points out that ETH continues to trade with high correlation and beta relative to BTC, limiting its ability to function as an independent monetary asset.

“The market still values ETH’s monetary premium as dependent on BTC’s,” the report states, highlighting that Ethereum’s valuation remains tied to Bitcoin’s broader monetary narrative.

Beyond the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, Messari highlights privacy-focused assets as one of the few areas where differentiated monetary narratives could persist until 2026.

The report notes growing concerns over surveillance, institutional capture, and central bank digital currencies as factors reshaping how markets evaluate properties like privacy and censorship resistance.

The analytics firm suggests a more selective crypto market, where capital increasingly concentrates in assets perceived as credible forms of money.

Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign monetary asset is expected to strengthen further, while much of the broader crypto market faces mounting pressure to justify its long-term relevance.