JPMorgan predicts stablecoin size in 2028: $500-600 billion, with DeFi and derivatives as the main driving forces

【Chain Wen】JPMorgan’s latest analysis report provides a relatively conservative forecast for stablecoin growth. By 2028, the total supply of stablecoins is expected to be between $50 billion and $60 billion, far below the market’s most optimistic estimates of $2 trillion to $4 trillion.

Why this number? JPMorgan points out that the demand for stablecoins is essentially a reflection of the crypto market itself, and the driving role of payment scenarios is actually quite limited.

Looking at the current situation, it’s clear that since the beginning of this year, the stablecoin market has grown by approximately $100 billion, reaching a scale of around $308 billion. Among them, the leading projects USDT and USDC have driven this growth. Specifically, derivative trading platforms have added about $20 billion in stablecoin holdings. What does this mean? It indicates that the current genuine demand for stablecoins mainly comes from three areas: cryptocurrency trading, DeFi collateral needs, and derivative trading.

However, analysts have also left a margin of caution. They believe that although the share of payment services is small now, as more service providers begin testing cross-border remittance channels based on stablecoins, this segment could gradually expand. But there’s an interesting logic here — widespread payment applications do not necessarily require larger circulating stablecoin volumes, because the velocity of tokens will accelerate with increased usage.

Another variable is the involvement of traditional finance. Banks and payment networks are attempting to maintain their position in institutional fund flows through tokenized deposits, blockchain solutions, and other means. At the same time, the advancement of CBDCs may offer officially endorsed options, competing directly with private stablecoins.