$23.58 billion options expire on December 26, Bitcoin's implied volatility hits a record high and then pulls back

【BlockBeats】The Bitcoin options market is about to迎来 a major milestone. On December 26th, options with a notional value of up to $23.58 billion will expire simultaneously, marking the largest such event in history. Meanwhile, the spot price remains within recent trading ranges, and market sentiment is relatively cautious.

Looking at data from the past month, the enthusiasm for options trading has noticeably declined. Reduced capital inflows typically indicate waning investor optimism for a rally, but interestingly, demand for protective puts remains. The implied volatility curve has shifted downward across the board, with at-the-money IVs for various maturities dropping to around 44%, down more than 10 volatility points from recent highs. This suggests the market is adjusting to more moderate price fluctuations.

Of particular interest is the behavior of skewness. The 25-day skew(, which is the difference between put IV and call IV), has remained positive, indicating that investors still price puts higher than calls, fully reflecting downside risk in the prices. This pattern is usually not a typical pre-breakout signal. Currently, arbitrage strategies dominate, and capital flows are clearly favoring defensive positions.

It’s worth considering that over the past year, the Bitcoin options market has experienced rapid growth, and the importance of hedging mechanisms has increased daily. This record-expiry event will reset market participants’ positions and the risk exposure of market makers. According to historical patterns, after large options expiries, market volatility often rises during the New Year period.