Fidelity Macro Director's Interpretation: Bitcoin's four-year cycle may enter a correction phase, with support levels in 2026 potentially at $65,000-$75,000

【Blockchain Rhythm】An institutional analyst recently summarized Bitcoin cycles with an interesting perspective. Although they remain optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term, they believe that Bitcoin may have completed another four-year halving cycle. Both price and time span support this pattern — after 145 months of continuous rise, the surge in October to a high of $125,000 aligns well with historical cycle expectations.

Following this logic, Bitcoin’s historical bear markets typically last about a year. Therefore, 2026 might be the “market holiday year” in the crypto world, with the support level expected to stabilize between $65,000 and $75,000.

Interestingly, recent gold performance has stolen the spotlight. So far this year, gold has risen by about 65%, outperforming the growth rate of global money supply. During recent corrections, gold has also maintained most of its gains, which is a typical sign of a strong bull market. In contrast, Bitcoin has been somewhat weak lately, and in the short term, neither asset is likely to experience mean reversion.