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Has the four-year cycle of Bitcoin become invalid? Why is macro liquidity the real driving force?
【Crypto World】Is the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin still reliable? Many people are starting to question it.
The key point is that the changes on the supply side are no longer as obvious — over 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the impact of halving on supply is naturally smaller. From another perspective, the large fluctuations in Bitcoin prices are actually more closely related to the global liquidity cycle. Just think about the strong market reaction when the spot ETF was approved in 2024. Macroeconomic environment and the tightening or loosening of funds are the real influencing factors, not the halving itself.
Currently, the market sentiment is indeed not very optimistic, and hot topics are drifting towards other tech fields. But don’t forget, if global liquidity truly begins to loosen and rebound, Bitcoin’s subsequent performance could be reactivated. The variables in this game are far more complex than everyone thinks.