The divergence of monetary policies among the US, UK, and EU central banks is imminent, and liquidity pricing in the crypto market faces new uncertainties

【CoinPush】Tonight, the US November CPI data will be released, with market expectations generally around a 3.1% year-over-year increase, and core CPI remaining near 3.0%. However, this data collection has been somewhat unusual—due to the government shutdown and holidays disrupting the rhythm, the statistical period has significantly shrunk, which has reduced the representativeness of the data. Several institutions are also issuing caution to investors: do not place too much trust in this data, as tariff expectations are still pushing up commodity prices, so interpretations should be made with caution.

On the same evening, the Bank of England is highly likely to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the interest rate to 3.75%. In recent months, UK inflation has fallen rapidly, and economic and employment data are weakening, giving BoE Governor Bailey the opportunity to adopt a dovish stance. The market has already priced in over a 90% chance of this rate cut. However, there is also a consensus—Britain’s rate-cut cycle is nearing its end, with limited policy space remaining, and no unlimited easing.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank remains on hold. The eurozone economy has exceeded expectations, and inflation has stabilized at the target level. Market discussions have shifted from “whether to cut rates” to “when to end accommodative policies,” with some even pondering the possibility of medium- to long-term rate hikes. However, the threshold for short-term policy adjustments remains high, and real changes may still be ahead.

The picture of diverging global central bank policies is becoming clearer. With distorted US data, a rate cut in the UK, and the ECB leaning towards neutrality or hawkishness, monetary policies are heading different ways. For the crypto market, recent price fluctuations are more driven by market re-pricing of liquidity and reactions to macroeconomic expectation gaps, rather than any single data point. The US dollar trend and overall sentiment in risk assets have become key variables worth continuous monitoring.