12/18 Market Analysis

Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will release key November inflation data, including the US November unadjusted CPI annual rate. This is the first CPI report in nearly two months. The small-cap central bank will also announce an interest rate hike tonight. More market-sensitive than the Fed’s policy is the shift in monetary policy from the East. According to the latest schedule, the small-cap central bank will announce its rate decision on December 19th (Friday). The market is on high alert, with widespread expectations that the small-cap central bank will raise interest rates at this meeting, increasing the policy rate from the current 0.5% by 25 basis points to 0.75%. This will be the highest rate level since 1995.
Currently, the daily technical structure of the 85,000 long/short “Macedonian defense line” for Bitcoin is deteriorating, but a key support zone will determine whether the decline halts abruptly or deepens. The support zone is 85,000-86,000, which is the current market focus; maintaining support at 85,000 is crucial. Holding this level could allow the market to stabilize, but if it breaks below, Bitcoin is very likely to retest the November low, opening up a larger downward space. The key resistance above is 88,000-89,000, which has become the ceiling that must be broken to reverse the short-term decline. The market must clearly break through 88,000 USD to gain upward momentum. Failure to do so could see prices seeking lower levels at 83,000 or even 80,000.
姨太 (Auntie) is also hovering on the edge of the abyss; 2800 must not be lost. Auntie’s technical chart is crying out under high pressure, with prices approaching the low region within 2025. The critical support zone for Auntie is 2800-2850. Currently, Auntie is barely maintaining a narrow support band. If Ethereum’s monthly closing price falls below 2930, it could trigger a waterfall decline, with targets towards 2000 USD and even 1100 USD. Resistance above is heavy; any meaningful rebound will face dense resistance zones. The first barrier is around 3020-3050, where multiple key exponential moving averages on the hourly chart converge. Only a sustained volume breakout above this area can alleviate the current extreme pessimism and open the way to 3100.
When the market is unclear, waiting is also a strategy. The bottom of the market is not determined by feelings but by analyzing market data and other information! $BTC #市场触底了吗？