The divergence in data itself is exactly the state the Federal Reserve wants to see.

Many people are concerned about whether this set of data is "contradictory," but for the Federal Reserve, this kind of divergence is actually an ideal situation. Moderate job growth avoids recession panic; rising unemployment and slowing wages provide space for policy shifts. This is a typical data structure during a policy window.

Goldman Sachs mentioned short-term factors causing interference, and that's correct, but even after removing short-term disturbances, the trend remains "cooling rather than rebounding." Therefore, I lean more towards believing that this is not noise but a sign that the trend is becoming more moderate.

As for whether to act early, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain cautious and not cut interest rates aggressively based on one or two data points. However, the possibility of "preparing earlier and making more statements" is increasing.

For the crypto market, the expectation of a policy shift itself is a liquidity positive, but this positive is more medium-term. In the short term, trading volume and risk appetite still need to cooperate. #非农数据超预期.