November CPI data released: inflation higher than expected, only a 25% chance of Fed rate cut in January

2025-12-18 05:00:10

【Crypto World】The US Consumer Price Index for November has just been released, and this is the most closely watched inflation data since September. Both the overall and core inflation rates have risen to 3.1%, slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Economists at LPL Financial, including Jeffrey Roach, agree that this wave of inflation is actually a short-term phenomenon and not so alarming. However, the futures market is not so optimistic. Data shows that traders only assign a 25% probability to the Fed cutting interest rates in January, which is a clear signal: the Federal Reserve is still following its old approach—watching the data and not rushing to act.

For cryptocurrencies, the Fed’s policy stance affects the entire market’s liquidity environment. In the short term, persistent inflation and declining expectations of rate cuts mean that capital costs remain high, which will continue to pressure risk asset valuations. Paying attention to subsequent economic data releases, especially employment and wage growth, may be the key to determining when a real shift will occur.

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HypotheticalLiquidator

· 2025-12-20 17:28

A 25% probability is a death sentence; borrowing rates still need to go higher. The stickiness of this wave of inflation isn't that easy to shake off, with high capital costs firmly suppressing the market, and risk assets will continue to be battered.

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RumbleValidator

· 2025-12-20 10:06

A 25% probability? To be honest, this data is telling us that the Federal Reserve will continue to be stubborn, and the liquidity environment has no short-term salvation. The stickiness of inflation seems to be more stubborn than expected, and the pressure on risk assets will only increase.

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BearMarketSunriser

· 2025-12-18 05:30

Hmm... a 25% chance, the Federal Reserve really wants us to give up.

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GasFeeCrier

· 2025-12-18 05:30

A 25% chance... hilarious. Is the Federal Reserve playing word games with us? If I had known that interest rate cuts were a distant prospect, I should have continued stacking coins and waiting out this high-interest cycle.

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BlockImposter

· 2025-12-18 05:30

25% chance? Buddy, are you joking with me? I've seen through the Fed's tricks long ago. Forget it, the crypto world still has to endure, liquidity is hopeless in the short term. 3.1% inflation, economists say it's no big deal, but the market doesn't believe it. Wait, are we going to continue with high interest rates again? My assets... Cutting rates is nowhere in sight, I have to hold on and withstand the pressure of the coins I have.

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ProposalManiac

· 2025-12-18 05:30

It's that time of year again: "Experts say it's fine, but the market is selling off." The 25% chance of rate cuts clearly indicates that the Federal Reserve has no intention of moving — from a mechanism design perspective, this is a signal, and don't expect liquidity to be environmentally friendly. The valuation pressure in the crypto circle is a certainty in the short term.

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tx_pending_forever

· 2025-12-18 05:30

Coming back with this again? Inflation is inflation, economists say it's a short-term phenomenon, I don't believe you... Traders are the real deal, a 25% chance of rate cuts is the market's true sentiment. What we crypto enthusiasts care most about is liquidity; high-level capital costs directly cause sell-offs... The Fed still has to hold back, if the data doesn't cool down, don't even think about it.

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