Based on US stock exchange margin indicators (such as FINRA margin debt data), the current market has entered a highly leveraged stage, exhibiting bubble characteristics. Since mid-2025, this indicator has continuously hit new all-time highs, with implied leverage levels significantly increasing, far surpassing previous mid-cycle peaks since 2009, and approaching or locally resembling the levels seen during the 2007 peak, but still below the internet bubble peak of 2000. During this leverage bubble phase, market movements are more driven by liquidity flows rather than fundamentals. Once the exchange's leverage begins to reverse and the indicator shows a downward turn, the overall trend is likely to shift into a medium- to long-term correction cycle. Moreover, historical experience shows that the higher the peak leverage value, the greater the decline during deleveraging. From this perspective, the potential correction in this cycle could exceed the downward magnitude of the bear market from November 2021 to December 2022, and we should be alert to the risk of sudden tightening of liquidity. #非农数据超预期