Corporate CFOs Lower Economic Outlook: Rising Tariff Concerns and Inflation Pressure May Limit the Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Room

DAOplomacy · 2025-12-17T12:56:14+00:00

The latest survey shows that 548 US CFOs are pessimistic about the economic outlook, mainly concerned about tariffs and inflation pressures. They forecast a 4% increase in prices next year, with the confidence index dropping to 60.2. Employment growth is expected to be 1.7% in 2026, with an economic growth rate of 1.9%. Corporate hiring intentions are subdued, and future policy adjustments face challenges.

DAOplomacy

2025-12-17 12:56:14

Abstract generation in progress

【BlockBeats】The latest survey data reveals the true thoughts of the American business community—pessimism among 548 CFOs is spreading.

According to a joint survey by the Richmond and Atlanta Federal Reserve Banks and Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, corporate executives are most worried about tariffs, which have become the top concern weighing on their minds. Even more concerning is that these leaders expect prices to rise by about 4% next year, a figure that could give the Federal Reserve a headache.

The confidence index is also plunging. Overall optimism about the U.S. economy dropped from 62.9 in Q3 to 60.2, failing to hold onto the recent high of 66 at the end of last year. Just a few months in, corporate outlooks have cooled significantly.

Regarding future employment and growth, their forecasts are as follows: employment growth is expected to be 1.7% by 2026, with an annual economic growth rate of about 1.9%, essentially a moderate, lukewarm expansion. The signals from the hiring front are also not very optimistic—only 40% of companies are still hiring, 20% have announced they will stop recruiting, and another 9% are considering layoffs.

These data reflect a reality: inflationary pressures have not fully subsided, and uncertainty about tariff expectations is eroding business confidence. This creates new constraints on the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy adjustments and may delay its timetable to return inflation to the 2% target.

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 2025-12-20 12:09

Tariffs really scared CFOs quite a bit; under 4% inflation pressure, the Federal Reserve has no tricks up its sleeve. --- Another "downgraded expectations" data point—this wave of economic soft landing storywriters should really call it a day. --- 548 CFOs are pessimistic—what does that say? In the crypto world, these fluctuations are nothing. --- 1.7% employment growth? Wait, isn't this just paving the way for a recession? --- The US business confidence index has fallen so much, and some still talk about a bull market in US stocks—laughable. --- Inflation at 4%, growth at 1.9%, is there room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates? Haha, this is what they call "forced hawkishness." --- After such a long trade war, the truth has finally been exposed. --- So, the traditional finance playbook is already played out; no wonder so many are flocking to Web3.

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TrustlessMaximalist

· 2025-12-19 10:58

With tariffs, the Dragon Slayer turns into a kitchen knife, and CFOs are collectively terrified haha A 4% inflation expectation, the Federal Reserve is really between a rock and a hard place this time Confidence dropped by 3 points in just a few months? At this rate, luckily crypto didn't fall even faster A 1.7% employment growth rate, can you even look at this number? Might as well just admit defeat; anyway, lowering interest rates won't save this mess

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MissedTheBoat

· 2025-12-17 13:26

Tariffs + inflation double whammy, CFOs are really panicking. 4% price increase, does the Federal Reserve still want to cut interest rates? Haha... --- 1.7% employment growth, 1.9% GDP growth, these numbers are really unsustainable. --- 548 CFOs unanimously bearish, confidence index drops to 60.2, down a full 6 points from the end of last year. This wave is really coming. --- Regarding tariffs, to put it simply, they are a mirror reflecting economic growth, exposing all hidden risks. --- Inflation expectation at 4%, the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates is blocked, it feels like next year will be even tougher for businesses. --- Who finds the slow and steady growth most comforting? Still the victims of this rate hike cycle... --- Falling from 66 to 60 in just a few months, what does that indicate? Everyone can see that the economy is heading downward.

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ser_we_are_ngmi

· 2025-12-17 13:24

Tariffs really have a tough impact on businesses. Under a 4% inflation expectation, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much room to cut interest rates, feeling a bit bottlenecked.

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GasFeeLover

· 2025-12-17 13:23

The issue of tariffs has everyone panicked, and CFOs are all pulling back and hesitating, haha

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Fren_Not_Food

· 2025-12-17 13:04

4% inflation expectation? The Fed probably won't cut rates, and this round CFOs are more honest than anything else.

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AirdropChaser

· 2025-12-17 12:59

Tariffs + inflation, the Federal Reserve is caught in the middle, this is just too tough—how are we supposed to get through these days?