The long-term Bitcoin holder sell-off is nearing its end, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to ease significantly.

【Blockchain Rhythm】According to the latest report released by research firm K33, the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders has reached a critical point. After years of continuous distribution, this pressure is gradually approaching saturation, and the momentum of on-chain selling is expected to ease.

Specifically, since the start of 2024, Bitcoin supplies locked for more than two years have continued to flow out. Approximately 1.6 million BTC have been reactivated and entered the trading market, which at current prices amounts to about $138 billion. These figures fully reflect the reality that early holders have been continuously selling on-chain. Vetle Lunde, head of research, pointed out that this volume has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, indicating a substantial large-scale distribution behavior behind it.

From a historical perspective, 2024 and 2025 have become the second and third highest years in Bitcoin history for long-term supply re-circulation, only behind the 2017 cycle. However, the driving forces behind these two periods are entirely different. The distribution cycle in 2017 was mainly driven by the ICO boom, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms, whereas this round of selling is characterized by a different nature—long-term holders directly facing the deep liquidity opened by the US Bitcoin spot ETF and urgent corporate financial needs, ultimately choosing to realize gains at high prices.

Looking ahead to the market trend, K33’s outlook is quite optimistic. Over the past two years, about 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated, and on-chain seller pressure is nearing a critical point. According to forecasts, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years may end its current downward trend by 2026, potentially surpassing the current scale of approximately 12.16 million BTC.

Additionally, an important factor not to be overlooked is the asset rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the new quarter. Considering Bitcoin’s relatively poor performance in Q4 compared to other assets, the funds allocated in fixed proportions might undergo rebalancing at the end of the year and early next year, potentially bringing a wave of phased capital inflows to the market.