How does Prediction Market retain users? Polymarket's answer has influenced even major platforms to follow suit.

【Crypto World】The crypto industry has always been troubled by one issue—it’s easy to attract new users, but very few actually stay. However, one platform is going against the trend.

According to recent data analysis from Dune and market maker Keyrock, they tracked the retention rates of new users across 275 crypto ecosystem projects, including various networks, DeFi protocols, wallets, and trading applications. The results show that the user retention rate of the prediction market platform Polymarket exceeds 85%. This achievement is considered outstanding in the industry.

Why is Polymarket able to do this? The key lies in its completely different operational logic. Prediction markets are inherently event-driven—users trade around real-world events such as elections, sports competitions, and macroeconomic data. Whenever a hot event occurs, new trading opportunities arise. Users don’t need subsidies or short-term incentives to keep them engaged; the events themselves repeatedly attract them back. This mechanism gives users a continuous reason to participate, which explains the high retention rate.

Even more interesting is that this sector has recently become popular. Since December, major players like Coinbase, Gemini, Phantom Wallet, and clearinghouse Bitnomial have been making efforts in this area. It is reported that Coinbase is planning to launch tokenized stocks and prediction market features; Phantom has partnered with Kalshi to incorporate event trading into the wallet; Bitnomial has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate prediction markets and clearing services; Gemini’s prediction markets are already available in 50 U.S. states.

It seems that everyone is eyeing the prediction market direction. In the long run, applications that can retain users are a scarce commodity in the crypto space.