#加密生态动态追踪 Non-farm payroll data incoming, can Bitcoin reverse? Deep analysis of early morning market movements

The US non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, causing market sentiment to fluctuate, and Bitcoin has seen a slight rebound. From a technical perspective, there are quite a few issues behind this rebound.

On the daily chart, the MACD remains in a bullish shrinking state, which looks good. However, the KDJ lines are oscillating and declining from high levels, and the TD indicator has already formed a TD5 downward pattern. Both signals indicate that the rebound strength is clearly insufficient. Additionally, the MA5, MA10, and MA30 moving averages are forming resistance, severely limiting the space for the price to rebound.

The key issue is—if the price cannot stay above the MA5 daily moving average (around 88,600), don’t expect a trend reversal. The current resistance zone is between 88,600 and 90,000. As long as the 90,000 level cannot be effectively broken through, a reversal pattern cannot be confirmed. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to test the support at around 84,000 again.

The 4-hour chart shows three consecutive bullish candles, which sounds promising. But the MACD is operating below the zero line with decreasing bearish momentum. Although the KDJ shows some short-term rebound potential, the problem is—each rebound hits the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and gets suppressed, with the highs continuously moving lower. The overall trend of the Bollinger Bands remains downward oscillation. Combining with the 1-hour chart, the current movement is more of a slight oscillation rebound. It is expected that after testing the daily MA5, the price will resume its downward trend. Support levels are around 85,000-84,000.

The trading strategy for early morning is clear: focus on short-term swings, prioritize short positions at high levels, and consider long positions at low levels.

**Bitcoin Trading Suggestions:**
- Short entry levels: 88,300-88,800, target 86,000-85,000
- Stop-loss: 99,200
- Long entry levels: around 85,000-84,000

**Ethereum Situation**

Ethereum generally follows Bitcoin in the short term, but its inflow and overall strength are weaker. The short-term high is around 3,020-3,050. If it cannot stay above this level effectively, the rebound space will be limited. Support is at around 2,870-2,830.

The trading approach is similar to Bitcoin—mainly short-term swings, with a focus on shorting during rebounds and considering longs at lows.

**Ethereum Trading Suggestions:**
- Short entry levels: 2,975-3,015, target 2,920-2,870
- Stop-loss: 3,035
- Long entry levels: around 2,850

That’s the current analysis. Market dynamics will be continuously monitored.