Is the Federal Reserve's chance of cutting interest rates next year only 20%? Employment data to be revealed tonight

【Blockchain Rhythm】The Federal Reserve’s policy direction directly influences the capital flow in the crypto market. According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is only 24.4%, with a high probability (75.6%) of maintaining the current rate.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of this year, the situation appears even more complex. By the end of March next year, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged reaches 49%, indicating that policy may continue to hold steady. However, there is also a possibility of rate cuts—the combined probability of a 25 basis point cut is 42.4%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is relatively small at only 8.6%. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for January 28 and March 18.

Key employment data is about to be released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the November seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data tonight at 21:30 (Beijing time). Market expectations are for 40,000 new non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.40%. This data often serves as an important reference for Federal Reserve decisions and will directly impact the short-term performance of crypto assets.