#比特币价格预测 The latest news indicates that the market is concerned about the arrival of a new "crypto winter." From on-chain data, there are no signs of large-scale sell-offs at the moment, but funds are indeed gradually flowing out. Regarding Bitcoin price predictions, the probability of dropping below $80,000 in December on Polymarket has risen to 55%, reflecting a pessimistic market sentiment.

However, I believe it is still premature to determine that we are entering a winter. Compared to previous cycles, there have been no major black swan events like Mt. Gox or FTX this time. The current adjustment is more like a correction for the previous rapid rise and concerns about the macroeconomic outlook.

Next, I will closely monitor the fund flows of large addresses and the sentiment changes in the derivatives market. If there is continuous large-scale capital outflow or a clear bearish bias in the options market, it may be necessary to be cautious of risks. For now, maintaining a cautious and observant stance might be the wiser strategy.