A historical pattern points to a $25,000 Bitcoin, says veteran analyst Peter Brandt

Source: Yellow Original Title: A historical pattern points to a $25,000 Bitcoin, says veteran analyst Peter Brandt

Original Link: Veteran trader Peter Brandt states that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to approximately $25,000 after the cryptocurrency broke its last parabolic advance, arguing that historical bull market patterns point to a much deeper correction than investors might expect.

What happened

Brandt, known for his technical analysis of multiple Bitcoin cycles, presented four data points supporting his perspective, claiming that Bitcoin’s bull cycles have shown an “exponential decomposition”; that each cycle has been defined by a parabolic rise; that each break of these historical parabolas has historically resulted in drops of more than 80%; and that the current advance has already been vulnerable.

Based on his framework, a 20% retracement from Bitcoin’s all-time high would set the downside target at $25,240.

Brandt’s view centers on the idea that Bitcoin’s major bullish trends follow identifiable geometric structures.

In previous cycles, including 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, once Bitcoin broke below the curve supporting its parabolic bullish trend, the market experienced a rapid and severe correction.

Although Brandt does not predict an identical repetition of past falls, he notes that the technical trigger is the same: the decisive failure of the parabola.

His comment on “exponential decomposition” refers to a long-observed reduction in Bitcoin’s bullish amplitude with each successive bull cycle.

The early cycles generated gains of several thousand percent, while later ones have produced increasingly smaller multiples.

According to Brandt, this diminishing power makes each new parabola more fragile and reduces the likelihood of sustained vertical price behavior.

Why it matters

By highlighting that previous breakouts have resulted in drops of over 80%, Brandt points to a structural vulnerability in Bitcoin’s long-term trend: once a parabolic move fails, it can unravel forcefully because market participants stop being anchored to the same rapid growth pace.

The $25,000 level cited by Brandt is not a prediction of a total cycle collapse but rather a technical reference point derived from his “20% of ATH” metric.

It represents what he considers the implicit lower limit of the current broken parabola.

Brandt’s assessment comes as Bitcoin trades around $86,200, 31.5% below its all-time high of $126,080.