Bitcoin under the threat of quantum computing: Satoshi wallets face risks, but the industry believes there is still time to respond

Source: Yellow Original Title: What happens if quantum computers target Satoshi’s wallet? Experts say Bitcoin has time, but not forever

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Quantum Computing Threat: Risks Facing Satoshi’s Wallet

A speculative scenario circulating on social networks has reignited longstanding concerns: could future quantum computers potentially compromise early Bitcoin addresses, including wallets believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, and dump large amounts of coins onto the market?

This debate was sparked by YouTuber and humor creator Josh Otten, who posted a fake price chart showing Bitcoin crashing to $3. He implied that if a sufficiently advanced quantum machine were to decode the estimated 1.1 million BTC from Satoshi and sell these assets immediately, such a crash could occur.

While this chart was created as an exaggeration, it raises a real technical question: what happens when quantum computing becomes powerful enough to derive private keys from public keys exposed by early Bitcoin addresses?

Experts warn: Early Bitcoin wallets face the greatest risk

On-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that millions of bitcoins, including Satoshi’s, are stored in early pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses, where the full public key is revealed once spent.

Theoretically, these keys are more vulnerable to future quantum attacks than modern formats.

“Many early investors will buy during downturns. The network will survive; most coins won’t face immediate risk,” Woo said, emphasizing that P2PK outputs represent a unique weakness that quantum computing could eventually exploit.

Analysts agree on this risk, noting that once a public key is disclosed, sufficiently advanced quantum machines could someday compute the corresponding private key. This possibility does not apply to newer address types, where the public key remains hidden as long as the funds are unspent.

Modern Bitcoin addresses offer stronger protection

Developers have long pointed out that quantum-resistant approaches already exist.

Newer Bitcoin addresses avoid exposing their public keys unless the coins are actively moved, significantly reducing the attack surface.

As long as the public key remains undisclosed, even complex quantum machines have no target to aim at.

Some in the community claim that the greatest risk is market psychology rather than cryptographic failure.

Senior cryptographer and Blockstream co-founder Adam Back downplayed short-term fears, arguing that Bitcoin has decades before facing a real quantum threat.

He believes there is ample time (20 to 40 years) for the industry to migrate to post-quantum cryptography standards that already exist today.

Market analyst James Check agreed, stating that before any practical attack becomes possible, updates resistant to quantum attacks are likely to be adopted.

He suggested that the most immediate concern is how the market might react to the possibility of quantum breakthroughs, rather than the actual cryptographic destruction of Bitcoin.

Check added that even if the threat materializes, the community is unlikely to support freezing or proactively changing Satoshi’s coins, meaning any long-inactive assets will still be part of Bitcoin’s future, including quantum risks.