Powell may step down in about six months. Now it's not a question of whether there will be a change, but rather who will replace him and when the market will start to digest this news in advance.

Treasury Secretary Yellen has already made it clear that she does not want to take the Federal Reserve Chair position, effectively withdrawing from the competition. The general market consensus now is that the best candidate is Haskett.

Why him? There are three main reasons:
First, he has a very clear stance; he openly supports cryptocurrencies, which is crucial in the current political environment;

Second, he has emphasized multiple times that the current economic data support continued rate cuts. This is not vague; he firmly stands on the side of "supporting rate cuts";

Third, his economic views align very well with Trump's, in short, they are on the same page, and their ideologies match.

The logic is simple: once the market confirms that Haskett will succeed Powell, the previous perception of the Fed's "dovish and neutral" policy stance will quickly be overturned, replaced by expectations that "policy will loosen earlier." This aligns with my ongoing view that the probability of continued rate cuts in the second half of next year is not just slightly increased but is a structural trend that can be confidently expected.

However, there is a common misconception: rate cuts do not mean unlimited liquidity injection. Truly impactful liquidity operations will probably end around May next year. Subsequent rate cuts will be more about "confirming a policy of easing" and "supporting market sentiment" rather than another round of massive liquidity injections.

Simply put:
In the first half of next year, market trends will mainly be driven by the expectation of "liquidity easing";
In the second half of next year, trends will be driven by "political cycle changes and clear easing policies" to boost valuations.
Ultimately, the market prefers to speculate on expectations in advance. Once policies are actually implemented, the market tends not to surge as dramatically.