The early bird catches the worm — this old saying also applies in the crypto world. Recently, every move of the on-chain whales has been signaling a potential change in market sentiment.

This Thursday or Friday, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce whether to raise interest rates. According to real fund voting on Polymarket, the probability of a rate hike has already reached 98%, which is almost a certainty. The yen's appreciation is imminent, which will have a noticeable impact on global liquidity.

And what about Bitcoin? Honestly, this is a bearish signal. A rate hike means risk assets will be under pressure, and hot money will withdraw from crypto assets in search of more stable returns. But this is exactly the opportunity that the big players dream of — a sharp decline in panic, then sweeping up positions at low prices while retail investors are forced to sell. This tactic has been used countless times.

If a major drop really happens, those large funds that have been lurking can accumulate chips at a cheaper price. So, on the surface, it looks bearish, but in reality, it's a good opportunity for smart money to position themselves. Now, it all depends on how the market moves next.