#美联储货币政策变化 Looking back on past monetary policy cycles, every shift by the Federal Reserve has shaken the nerves of global markets. Now, with an 87.4% probability of a rate cut in December, one can't help but recall the easing cycle after the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the market also anticipated rate cuts, but the actual process was far more complex than expected. History shows us that policy shifts are often gradual and do not happen overnight.

The current situation shares both similarities and differences with the past. Inflationary pressures remain, but signs of slowing economic growth are evident. This brings to mind the policy dilemmas during the stagflation of the 1970s. However, the Fed's current policy tools and market communication mechanisms have greatly improved.

Historical experience suggests that even when a rate cut cycle begins, its pace and magnitude may fall short of market expectations. Investors should be cautious of overly optimistic sentiments and the risks they entail. At the same time, attention should be paid to the differentiated impact of policy shifts across various asset classes. Past lessons remind us that we must remain calm and rational near policy turning points.