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📈 Fidelity's latest view: Bitcoin may have entered the "fifth wave cycle," but the trend by the end of the year still has variables
Fidelity (Fidelity) Global Macro Head Jurrien Timmer gave a rather thought-provoking assessment today👇
Against the backdrop of the fading speculative bubble, the Federal Reserve beginning to ease, and bond and forex markets quieting down—
Bitcoin's 2025 official settlement has actually performed well.
But the question also arises:
The previous pattern of "treasury companies issuing stocks to buy BTC and then driving up the market" has now become a resistance, leading the market to start questioning:
👉 Is the four-year cycle coming to an end again?
However, Timmer's answer is very clear:
❗ It hasn't ended; in fact, it might just be entering a new major cycle.
He explained this using the "Bitcoin mature network curve"—
Since 2010, Bitcoin has gone through 5 major upward waves, each with similar characteristics:
Smaller gains than the previous wave
Longer duration than the previous wave
Increasingly resembling a mature asset
From the recent trajectory (since around $16k in 2022) of this round,
BTC's trend is more stable, with longer cycles and more rational volatility.
Most importantly:
📊 Timmer's calculations show that—
👉 The potential top of the fifth wave cycle could point to $151,360.
Of course, he also reminds us:
There are still many unknowns before the end of the year, and it won't be a straight line up.
But the overall tone is summed up in one sentence:
"The cycle is not dead; it has just grown up."