#比特币价格波动分析 Reflecting on over ten years of Bitcoin history, such "short-term bottoming" theories have been heard too many times. Every major dip is followed by analysts confidently predicting that the bottom has been reached and a rebound is imminent. But history shows us that the actual bottom is often lower than expected, and rebounds can take longer than anticipated.

Currently, seeing the RSI approaching 30 is indeed a technical support level. However, during the 2018 bear market, we witnessed RSI lingering below 20 for extended periods. So, relying solely on this indicator to determine a bottom would be too hasty.

As for the $100,000 target price, it sounds exciting, but we also need to be cautious of excessive optimism. Remember after the 2017 bull run, many predicted Bitcoin would directly surge to $100,000, only for it to experience a bear market lasting over two years.

Market sentiment shifts from extreme fear to greed typically take time. Even if major players start building positions, retail investor confidence doesn't recover overnight.

The macro environment is indeed improving, but we must also remember that Bitcoin is no longer just a safe-haven asset. Its connection to traditional financial markets is growing tighter, and global economic uncertainties still exist.

Overall, maintaining a cautious optimism might be wiser. History tells us that each major rally in Bitcoin requires time for accumulation and resonance from multiple factors. Patience, continuous observation, and a seasoned approach are the hallmarks of experienced investors.