The Federal Reserve's dot plot is dovish, with two rate cuts in 2026, one in 2027, and no change in 2028. The much-anticipated flood of liquidity has fallen flat, and CZ mentioned that the super cycle driven by the Fed's massive liquidity injection for $BTC is also unlikely to materialize.

The Fed bought $40 billion in U.S. Treasuries, which many thought was quantitative easing (QE), but in fact, it is RMP operation. Unlike QE and QT, RMP is aimed at maintaining the minimum reserve safety threshold for the banking system, preventing excessive withdrawal of funds by banks at the end of the year. Essentially, it’s about replenishing the water that has fallen out, not adding more. Moreover, the pace will be rapid before April 2026, after which the scale of purchases will decrease quickly. $SOL $BNB $ETH
What truly determines liquidity is whether the SLR is relaxed, whether banks can expand their balance sheets, whether the Treasury is replenishing reserves, and whether the Fed reduces the ON RRP scale.
Next, the non-farm payroll data on December 16 and the CPI data on December 18 are crucial. Non-farm payrolls are likely to be weak; the focus is on CPI. If November CPI does not rebound after rate cuts, the Fed's further easing will be less hindered. Currently, the macro environment is not optimistic. Everyone should pay close attention and make cautious decisions!