The biggest pitfall of a bull market has never been losing money, but rather missing the rhythm of making money.

Recently, there's been a constant barrage of questions about whether the altcoin season is about to start. Let me be straightforward: jumping in now is just giving the big players a warm welcome, and you'll probably have to wait at least a month.

Why am I so confident? Just look at Bitcoin — the main upward wave hasn’t even finished. Daily net inflows into ETFs are like an assembly line; institutions are疯狂扫货, and exchange-held Bitcoin reserves have fallen to their lowest point in years. It’s like a train still accelerating — do you really expect passengers to jump off halfway to buy a meal box? The last cycle was the same — during Bitcoin’s climb from $20,000 to $60,000, only a few veteran coins made some symbolic moves, while most altcoins were basically dead in the water.

Talking about Ripple, Dogecoin, and other recently popular old coins, don’t be fooled by appearances. Their movement is purely driven by old-timer sentiment filters + localized hot money speculation, and has nothing to do with the overall altcoin market. The 2021 cycle was more typical — during Bitcoin’s surge, only top-tier coins like Dogecoin and Ethereum moved along with it, while thousands of other tokens remained dormant. The real altcoin feast only begins after Bitcoin consolidates at high levels.

The current market is even more absurd than back then — out of over 12 million altcoins, less than 4% of the 870,000 MEME coins can survive 30 days. Funds simply dare not spread out recklessly, but only pile into old coins for warmth. In this environment, talking about altcoin season? The rhythm is completely mismatched.