The "Strong Labor Market" narrative just took another hit.
I’ve been tracking the trend, and the signal is getting louder.
US Initial Jobless Claims just came in at 236,000 vs. 220,000 expected. To the consensus, this is a "miss."
To me, this is validation.
Think about the setup:
1. We have 1.2 Million announced job cuts YTD. 2. Manufacturing is in contraction. 3. And now, jobless claims are spiking above expectations. The "Soft Landing" crowd wants you to believe employment is stable.
But the data shows the consumer is starting to crack…
Why this matters for your portfolio: The Fed is watching this number like a hawk.
They know they can't let unemployment spike, or the debt spiral accelerates (tax receipts crash).
A weakening labor market is the ultimate green light for liquidity.
Bad news for the economy is BULLISH for the printer.
I’m ignoring the "pause" rhetoric. I’m positioning for the stimulus that MUST follow this data.
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The "Strong Labor Market" narrative just took another hit.
I’ve been tracking the trend, and the signal is getting louder.
US Initial Jobless Claims just came in at 236,000 vs. 220,000 expected.
To the consensus, this is a "miss."
To me, this is validation.
Think about the setup:
1. We have 1.2 Million announced job cuts YTD.
2. Manufacturing is in contraction.
3. And now, jobless claims are spiking above expectations.
The "Soft Landing" crowd wants you to believe employment is stable.
But the data shows the consumer is starting to crack…
Why this matters for your portfolio:
The Fed is watching this number like a hawk.
They know they can't let unemployment spike, or the debt spiral accelerates (tax receipts crash).
A weakening labor market is the ultimate green light for liquidity.
Bad news for the economy is BULLISH for the printer.
I’m ignoring the "pause" rhetoric. I’m positioning for the stimulus that MUST follow this data.