The wave of rate cuts yesterday has already been fully absorbed, and the real test is tonight at 9:30 PM.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a rate cut as expected yesterday, and in his post-meeting speech, he acknowledged the downward pressure in the labor market, hinting at continued easing. What happened next? BTC surged to a high and then dropped, ETH from the $3447 level directly plunged, and risk assets collapsed across the board. A typical pattern of expectations being fulfilled followed by a reverse harvest.

More importantly, Powell explicitly stated this time: future data will determine the direction, no longer pre-emptively making promises. All rate cut pace decisions will follow economic data. The U.S. initial jobless claims number to be released tonight at 21:30 (market expectation: 220,000) will mark the first shot in this new era of "data-driven decision-making," directly testing whether there are cracks in the employment market.

The market has now split into two factions:

If the initial claims number is below 220,000, especially significantly below expectations—indicating employment is more resilient than expected, Powell’s dovish rhetoric will lose ground. Expectations of rate cuts will cool, the "tightening narrative" will return, and crypto assets will continue to be under pressure.

But if the initial claims number exceeds 220,000, especially significantly above expectations—confirmed by data that employment is deteriorating—the logic forcing the Fed to accelerate rate cuts will be even more solidified. Risk assets may see a violent rebound.

My view? The current gains have already been overstretched. Even if poor data triggers a rebound, it’s just the last window for short positions to add and longs to escape their tops. The real battle has just begun. Tonight’s 21:30 figure will set the tone for at least the next month.

Powell has handed the initiative to the data. Tonight’s initial claims number will decide whether the "recession trade" fully launches or the "tightening trade" makes a comeback. In the crypto world, life or death will be decided overnight.