ETH Market Analysis

Bullish/Bearish Conclusion: In the short term, ETH is in a consolidation phase following the realization of easing benefits. The bullish upward trend has not been completely broken, but the momentum to push higher has weakened. Be cautious of a price pullback, and watch whether the support levels below can absorb selling pressure.

Resistance Levels: The first short-term resistance is at $3300 (which was previously a support level now turned into resistance). The key resistance is at $3400-3450 (the 60-day moving average combined with previous highs). If this range is broken, the next target could be $3515-3590.

Support Levels: The critical support is at $3150-3200 (the 50-day moving average plus the most active trading price range). Strong support is at $3100-3000 (a key psychological level plus the bottom of the consolidation zone). If this level is broken, ETH's rebound prospects will diminish.

Daily Chart Level: The previous five-day consecutive rally has ended, with the price retreating below $3300 after a spike. The red energy bars on the MACD indicator are shrinking, and the DIF and DEA lines are approaching the zero axis. Profit-taking investors are starting to sell, increasing selling pressure.

4-Hour Chart Level: The MACD initially shows increasing bearish momentum, which then gradually diminishes. The RSI previously dipped into oversold territory but has turned upward in the afternoon, indicating a technical rebound. However, beware of a potential "top divergence," where the price makes a new high but the indicator does not, which could trigger a correction.

On-Chain Data: The amount of ETH on exchanges has fallen to the lowest level in history at 8.7%. Large holders are still actively buying, reducing the available ETH for sale in the market, providing some support for the price. However, overall market sentiment in the short term is suppressing price gains, preventing a rally.

Key Market Influencing Factors

Positive Factors: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and liquidity injections have increased market liquidity; ETH's Fusaka upgrade has strengthened the ecosystem; institutional investors are taking advantage of the low prices to continue buying ETH spot and ETF.

Negative Factors: The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, suggesting that future rate cuts may not be easy, and the benefits of previous rate cuts have already been realized; investors who previously profited are now selling, driving prices down; there are no new positive catalysts in the short term to push ETH higher.
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