On December 11, 2025, ETH rallied following the Federal Reserve's rate cut but then fell back. After a short-term bullish trend, the market entered a correction phase, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting key price levels. The specific technical analysis is as follows:

1. Price and Indicator Status: On the day, ETH initially surged to a high of $3,445, then quickly retreated, breaking below the $3,300 threshold in the morning, and oscillating around $3,270 during the session. The daily chart shows five consecutive bullish candles but with signs of resistance; it once broke above the upper Bollinger Band and then pulled back. The 4-hour chart displays an ascending triangle breakout pattern, but MACD has already shown top divergence, and in the short term, it entered an extremely overbought zone. Although the MACD on the daily level has been increasing volume over three days with a stair-step rise, and DIF and DEA are close to the zero line, overall volume remains insufficient, indicating limited buying power. Additionally, RSI is retreating from the overbought zone, showing a clear need for short-term correction.

2. Key Support and Resistance: Resistance focuses on the $3,400 round number, followed by the trend top at $3,515 and the resistance zone between $3,570 and $3,710. If volume can stabilize above $3,400, a trend reversal may be possible. Support levels are first seen around $3,240 – $3,200, an area that coincides with previous highs, trendline support, and Fibonacci retracement levels. If these are lost, next support is at $3,150 – $3,180. Core strong support is concentrated in the $3,000 – $3,100 range, which combines technical support with psychological significance.

3. Trend and Bull/Bear Signals: On the bullish side, ETH shows a budding "inverse head and shoulders" breakout pattern, and on-chain data indicates that ETH supply on centralized exchanges has reached a historic low, with whales continuing to accumulate. If the 20-day and 50-day moving averages form a golden cross, upward momentum may re-ignite. On the bearish side, ETH remains in a long-term downtrend, with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages still above the current price and trending downward. Additionally, intraday surges and pullbacks signal resistance. The 30-minute chart shows divergence at two pivots, likely triggering a correction on the 4-hour chart. If key support levels are broken, the trend may continue to weaken over the long term. #美联储降息预测 $ETH