#以太坊行情技术解读 The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled in the early morning, but behind it hides a well-known pattern—the moment favorable news is realized often marks a turning point. The market rebound over the past few weeks has actually already priced in most of the rate cut expectations. Now that the cut has been implemented, this upward momentum could easily falter at any moment.

Looking ahead at the policy landscape, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking further action is quite low. On the other hand, in Japan, expectations for rate hikes are approaching 90%. In other words, there are signs of tightening global liquidity. With the Christmas holiday approaching, funding conditions will tighten further, and the market lacks new catalysts. My judgment is that in the second half of this month, and even into January and February next year, the overall situation will be relatively tough.

Compared to the previous bull market, active market funds are really scarce. As soon as a negative news event occurs—even if it’s not particularly significant—the risk of a panic sell-off is very high. If Bitcoin drops below the previous low of 80,000, further decline is possible.

Based on these factors, my outlook for the next three months is bearish. I originally planned to do a rolling position between 95,000 and 97,000, but that now seems unlikely. If the price doesn’t reach 95,000, I won’t consider that plan anymore. My short-term decision is clear: continue to confidently hold long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, waiting for better opportunities.