#数字资产生态回暖 The Bank of Japan May Raise Interest Rates in December—This Time It's Different

Japan's inflation has been rising for 50 consecutive months, with core CPI remaining high, and the long-term depreciation of the yen has caused import costs to soar. A recent Reuters poll shows that 90% of economists are betting that the Bank of Japan will implement a 25 basis point rate hike in December, targeting a rate of 0.75%, which could further rise to 1% before September next year. This is no longer just market expectations—an interest rate hike cycle is essentially certain.

A Double-Edged Sword for Japan's Economy

The benefits are clear: inflation may be contained, the yen could appreciate, and imported inflation pressures might ease somewhat. But there are also many downsides—higher borrowing costs could lead companies to cut back on investment plans; consumers might become more cautious due to increased borrowing costs; the bond market will come under pressure, and the stock market could experience short-term volatility, with different sectors beginning to diverge.

Global Market Chain Reactions

This is the key point. While the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, Japan is raising them—two major central banks are moving in opposite directions, which could lead to a concentrated sell-off in global bond markets. Especially in markets sensitive to yen arbitrage trading, volatility could be quite intense. The rate hikes could also attract international capital backflows, meaning emerging markets and the crypto markets might face capital outflows—reversing capital flows and reshaping the global liquidity landscape.

What to Watch Out For

Japan's economy entered negative growth in the third quarter of this year, and an overly rapid rate hike could risk intensifying a recession. Policy coordination also becomes more difficult; although markets have partially priced in these expectations, short-term volatility remains unavoidable. The chain reactions of $JPY appreciation, bond market turbulence, and capital flow reversals—how they will impact global asset allocation—is the key focus for upcoming observation.