The script at dawn: dovish rate cuts, hawkish statements, the market gets hit with a "sucker punch"

Brothers, you followed Powell's speech at dawn, right? It was a great show for the market. Simply put: the rate cut was a dovish move, but the "sugar" in the future might not be as much (hawkish guidance), and the crypto circle was immediately disappointed and experienced another "Black Friday."
The core points are three sentences:
1. Cut but with huge disagreements: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But the key is, there was internal disagreement—9 votes in favor, 3 votes against. Some want to cut more, others don't want to cut at all. This disagreement made the market nervous.
2. Wait and see for the future: Powell said that after three consecutive rate cuts, interest rates have reached a "wait-and-see" level. The key is, they forecast only one more rate cut by 2026, which is much less than the market expected as a "big easing package."
3. The reason is "stagnant inflation": The Fed is now in a dilemma. On one side, signs of a slowdown in the employment market require rate cuts to support; on the other side, inflation remains high due to tariffs and other issues. This "stagflation" signal makes them hesitant to loosen policy further.
Impact on the crypto market: short-term volatility, long-term narrative unchanged
Why did it crash? Cryptocurrencies, as assets with the highest risk appetite globally, are highly sensitive to liquidity expectations. When the market realizes that the Fed's "water tap" won't open wider, disappointment immediately triggers leveraged long positions.
What’s next?
Short-term (a few weeks): The market will digest this information and closely monitor economic data. Increased uncertainty might limit the upside before the end of the year, and volatility will be the main theme.
Mid to long-term: Don’t panic, the underlying logic remains unchanged. The rate-cut cycle is already ongoing. Some analysts believe Bitcoin's new all-time high is just "delayed, not canceled." Once future economic data supports a shift to more easing or long-term positive regulation, a new rally can still be expected.
Summary: This decline is a correction of the market’s "overly optimistic easing expectations." It tells us that the Fed will be very cautious with every step. For us, lowering short-term wealth dreams and focusing on long-term trends and position management might be more important than speculating on when the next rate cut will happen. #美联储降息预测