#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 The recent Fed dot plot forecast is really interesting—after cutting 25 basis points to stop the economy from overheating, it immediately locked future rate expectations at levels from three months ago. This move is like putting a bandage on the market while simultaneously holding down other wounds.

Looking back at the data over the past three months, it's quite dramatic: employment has been weak, inflation remains sticky at 2.8% and hasn't moved, yet the dot plot remains completely unchanged as if nothing happened. This isn't no change at all; in fact, it's the central bank's dilemma—raising rates risks choking off inflation and potentially hurting itself, lowering rates might risk fueling inflation again, and tightening too much could stall the economy. Ultimately, they simply rely on the old expectations as insurance, appearing steady without the need to craft new narratives, leaving the market no choice but to accept loose expectations and not cause any waves.

This "unchanged consistency" is even more absolute than actively adjusting expectations—it's like plainly saying "I have no new ideas right now, so stop gambling wildly." All ambiguity about future policy directions is wrapped up in the phrase "keeping things unchanged," making it impossible to gauge confidence or discern a clear direction. It's purely a stance of "getting through this period first, then see what happens."