Let's analyze some possible outcomes of this FOMC meeting, each with different impacts on the market.

Starting with the most likely scenario—a 25 basis point rate cut but with a hawkish stance. This kind of move should be familiar in the crypto world; after three rate cuts last year, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 20%, and funds will gradually shift towards higher-risk assets. US stocks might jump initially, but if Powell’s tone hints at "don’t expect further cuts," the gains are unlikely to hold.

If there’s a real surprise—signaling even more easing alongside a rate cut—that would be chaotic. Treasury yields would plummet, the dollar would struggle under pressure, and risk assets like BTC would skyrocket. Gold and silver would also follow suit, creating a typical flood-the-golden-mountains scenario.

The most exciting is the third possibility: no rate cut at all. This would cause a frenzy, with market expectations shattered. The crypto market would definitely dive first, with short-term US Treasury yields soaring to the moon, while long-term yields drop due to recession fears, potentially causing an inverted yield curve. The USD index would surge violently, but other assets would suffer.

In any case, volatility is unavoidable.