Analyst Murphy has recently focused on a crucial metric—the Profit Supply Percentage (PSIP). He says this indicator is approaching a very delicate position.

Remember last November? The PSIP directly broke through the 65% critical threshold, and market sentiment instantly became fragile. Now, although it has rebounded to 67.6%, truth be told, it’s still oscillating within the 65%-70% range. Moving upward, confidence may gradually return; dropping downward, panic sentiment could surge back in a matter of minutes. This is what’s called the "emotional critical zone," the most testing time for human nature.

Murphy reviewed historical data and discovered a pattern: every time the PSIP falls below 50%, it’s usually during the bear market bottoming-out phase. According to his latest model projection, if Bitcoin’s price really drops below $62,000, the PSIP will fall into that 50% zone—that is, what he calls the "bear bottom cost-effective range." Previously, he estimated $59,000, but has now raised it by $3,000.

What does this mean? It’s certainly not an all-in bottom now, but we’re not far from that "smart money starting to enter" position. Historical experience tells us that true reversals often don’t happen when confidence is at its peak, but quietly lay the groundwork during times of intense panic.

As Murphy puts it: if BTC really drops to $62,000, it might not be a sign of increased risk, but rather an opportunity emerging. Of course, this is just one opinion; in the market, nobody can say for sure.