#比特币市场分析 Looking back at Bitcoin's historical cycles, I have witnessed too many battles at the $100,000 threshold. Now, some analysts are predicting that the price might return to this level by the end of the year, which makes me ponder deeply. From the bull market peak between 2017 and 2021 to the sharp decline this year, market sentiment has always swung between extreme optimism and pessimism. Galaxy Digital founder Novogratz's观点值得关注，他提到即使达到10万美元也会面临抛压，这与我过去的观察相符。

Bitcoin's short-term trend is often influenced by technical and emotional factors. When RSI approaches 30, it indeed frequently signals a cyclical bottom, but we cannot ignore longer-term macro factors. Factors such as the end of quantitative tightening and expectations of rate cuts are indeed favorable for risk assets, but uncertainties in the regulatory environment still exist.

From historical experience, Bitcoin often experiences significant volatility near important psychological thresholds. The 50% probability prediction on Polymarket reflects that market divergence remains substantial. I believe that, regardless of whether it ultimately reaches $100,000, Bitcoin is likely to undergo a major price adjustment in the coming months. For long-term investors, paying attention to changes in fundamentals might be more meaningful than guessing short-term prices. After all, true value often takes time to be validated.