The economic calendar on December 4 is full of boring numbers at first glance. But veterans know that these seemingly bland data points are precisely the invisible variables that affect the crypto market.

Let's talk about the press conference of the Ministry of Commerce first.
Don't think that this kind of official occasion is just going through the motions, and there is something real hidden in the wording. A sentence of "encouraging innovative business formats" and a sentence of "strengthening regulatory measures" can make the market reaction 108,000 miles different. Policy sentiment is much more effective than K-line charts, and smart people will read between the lines of the speech.

Look at Europe - the Swiss unemployment rate is matched with the eurozone retail sales data.
The logical chain is this: weaker European data→ the euro under pressure→ a stronger dollar→ bitcoin is usually squeezed. But there is a reversal point here, if the data rots to a certain extent, it will detonate safe-haven demand, and funds may detour into crypto assets. Therefore, you can't just look at the surface, you have to judge the "degree of rottenness".

The two data in the United States are more cunning - layoffs and jobless claims.
Conventional understanding: The weak US economy → the depreciation of the US dollar → good for Bitcoin. But the reality is more complicated. If the data is bad enough to trigger panic, there will be a "dollar repatriation", liquidity will be withdrawn, and the crypto market will suffer. However, if the data is only slightly lower than expected, it is another script - institutions just take the opportunity to build positions. The key is "how bad it is".

Here is a judgment: as long as there is no explosive bad news tonight, it is likely that the main force will use fluctuations to wash chips.

Finally, EIA natural gas inventories, which are easily overlooked.
It is true that soaring energy prices will push up inflation expectations, but now the market is actually afraid of "deflation". If natural gas inventories increase significantly, it means weak demand and a cooling economy, which will force the Fed to turn to easing early. Once the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up, it is the real accelerant of Bitcoin.

Practical suggestions:

First, don't bet on the data itself, wait for the market to digest the reaction after the announcement, and the right side of the transaction is safer.

Second, the position is controlled below 50%, leaving enough ammunition to deal with sudden situations.

The market is always oscillating between greed and fear. But to be honest, most people don't die because of how terrible the data is, but because they don't understand the human game behind the data. When watching the market tonight, remember to keep an eye on your mentality at the same time - this is much more important than staring at the K-line.