Recently, I’ve been watching the order book of a prediction market, and it looks pretty fishy. On the surface, NO seems like a sure thing, but the market movements are really strange—as if someone is manipulating things behind the scenes. A few hours later, everything settled: two consecutive YES outcomes were overturned, and the current information clearly points to NO. Interestingly, the odds are hugely skewed at 1 to 100. In this situation, I choose to side with NO. Even if it somehow ends up being ruled as YES, it’s like getting a lottery ticket with 100x leverage for free—the risk-reward ratio is worth taking the bet.