Forget $200,000: Standard Chartered lowers Bitcoin forecast for 2025

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Forget $200,000: Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Forecast for 2025 Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/esqueca-os-us-200-mil-standard-chartered-reduz-previsao-para-o-bitcoin-em-2025/ With Bitcoin’s upward trend coming to an end after a poor performance in the fourth quarter, the British multinational bank and wealth management firm Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its multi-year price targets for the leading cryptocurrency.

The bank now predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, down from its previous target of $200,000, according to a report released on Tuesday. While its long-term outlook remains at $500,000, the timeline has been pushed back from 2028 to 2030.

Bitcoin is currently stuck in a narrow range, with no catalysts to push it higher. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at $93,981, up 4.2% over the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

Bitcoin Price Outlook Worsens

The bank’s downward revision stems from a recalibration of demand expectations. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick cited the end of a major source of demand and slower-than-expected institutional adoption through ETFs (exchange-traded funds) as factors behind the adjustment.

Kendrick states that aggressive purchases by digital asset treasury firms “have come to an end,” adding that “future increases in Bitcoin’s price will be driven by only one factor: ETF purchases.”

As a result, the market now relies on periodic ETF inflows, which have dropped sharply. The current quarterly flow of 50,000 BTC is the smallest since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US.

Compared to the 450,000 BTC purchased per quarter at the end of 2024—by both ETFs and digital asset treasuries—this number has fallen dramatically.

Additionally, the report highlights political pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is influencing the risk asset class.

While investors are optimistic about an expected 0.25 percentage point rate cut in tomorrow’s decision, the outlook depends largely on the Fed chair’s guidance for the coming year, according to experts.

The appointment of Kevin Hassett to the FOMC could encourage looser monetary policy, potentially leading investors to seek out “tangible” assets like Bitcoin as a hedge.

“This time really is different,” Kendrick wrote, explicitly dismissing old halving cycle models. “We believe crypto winters are a thing of the past.”

Though Bitcoin has retested the $90,000 mark several times in the past two weeks, the short-term outlook depends largely on the outcome of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.