A wave of US economic data is coming tonight—what does this mean for the crypto space? I think it’s worth discussing.

Let’s go over the timeline first: at 8:30 PM, the November corporate layoff data will be released; at 9:30 PM comes the main event—last week’s initial jobless claims, with the market expecting 220,000; at 11:00 PM, we’ll get the supply chain pressure index and factory orders data.

The most critical data point is the jobless claims. Why? Because it directly reflects the strength of the job market. If the number jumps above 220,000, it could indicate a spreading wave of layoffs and a clear signal of economic cooling. Normally, in such cases, funds tend to seek safety, and crypto assets would inevitably face short-term pressure. But what if the number comes in below expectations? That means the labor market is still holding up, which could provide some support for crypto prices.

However, there’s a variable now—rate cut expectations are running hot. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has soared to 94% on Polymarket. Rate cuts usually mean increased liquidity, with money flowing into risk assets, which is generally a positive signal for the crypto market. So even if tonight’s jobs data fluctuates a bit, it might not shake the overall trend.

But don’t get too optimistic. If unemployment claims surge way past the 220,000 mark, the market might start to worry about a hard economic landing. At that point, even if rate cut expectations persist, panic could override everything else.

In short, tonight’s data is worth watching, but there’s no need to overreact. Short-term volatility is normal—the key is to keep an eye on the broader macro trends.