#美联储重启降息步伐 The central bank rate cut cycle has officially begun, and $ETH has surged back to 3300. However, in this rally, the risk of "consensus piling" is worth being cautious about—the crazier it gets, the closer we are to the peak of bullish news.

In the coming week, several central banks will be making intensive moves:

On the Fed's side, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December 11 FOMC meeting is as high as 89.4%. This would be the third rate cut this year. Once confirmed, the federal funds rate will drop to the 3.50%-3.75% range, effectively ending quantitative tightening. The market will see about $135 billion in new liquidity—this is a real catalyst for risk assets.

The European Central Bank is more conservative and will most likely keep rates unchanged at its December meeting. However, with retail sales data continuing to weaken, the market is already preparing for further easing in 2026.

India's central bank is more aggressive—cutting rates directly by 25 basis points (1 notch) in December. The reason is simple: inflation has hit a historic low, providing room for rate cuts.

The situation at the Bank of Japan is a bit more complicated. Household spending has dropped by 3%, so the probability of a rate hike is low, but the yen is under increasing appreciation pressure, making policy decisions more difficult.

As for China, there haven't been any clear rate cut signals recently, but the spillover effect of the global easing wave is present. The LPR quotation may be adjusted to hedge and support domestic demand.

Market-wise, $ZEC $PIPPIN is also rising in tandem, but it's important to pace yourself—observe more, act less, and wait for confirmation signals before getting on board.