The probability of a 25BP rate cut expected by the #美联储降息预测 market has exceeded 80%, indicating that the positive news has largely been priced in advance. If a rate cut occurs as scheduled on Thursday, there may be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of market volatility in the short term, rather than a simple straight-line rebound.

The key is to watch Powell’s post-meeting statement for dovish or hawkish signals: if he hints at continued easing next year, risk assets (especially cryptocurrencies) are likely to rally further; if his attitude is conservative, the pressure for a pullback will increase after the positive news is fully priced in.

Recent strategies:
1. Staggered allocation: For those already holding positions before the meeting, it’s advisable to take partial profits and keep some positions to guard against volatility; for those with no position, wait until the trend becomes clear after the decision before following up.
2. Pay attention to correlated assets: US stocks (especially tech stocks) have strong correlation with BTC and ETH; if the Nasdaq surges and then pulls back, beware of the crypto market following suit.
3. Set defensive levels: If BTC falls below 41,000 or ETH breaks below 2,200, short-term bullish sentiment may weaken.

A rate cut is the start of medium- to long-term liquidity injection, but in December the market is still affected by capital outflows and regulatory news. It is recommended to take small positions to test the direction and keep flexible funds to deal with unexpected events.