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BTC Evening Update:
BTC has been consolidating inside a triangle, neither breaking out nor breaking down, just fluctuating in this range. If it wants to rise, it should do so quickly; if it wants to fall, it should just drop decisively. This is dragging on too long.
I don't know if it's going for a W-bottom or an M-top—can we get a clear direction? For a W-bottom, it must break through the upper resistance at 91351 at the hourly level for a W-bottom to form. For an M-top, it must break below the neckline at 89561 for the M-top to be established and for the downtrend to continue. Right now it's stuck in the middle, so what should we do? Just wait and see which direction it breaks out, then follow the trend accordingly. There's really no other option.
Is the position indicated by the yellow arrow a double bottom? For now, it appears to be, but 89561 cannot be broken. If 89561 is broken, not only will the double bottom be invalidated, but the long trend marked by the big white box will also be destroyed. Same view as midday: as long as 89561 isn't broken, moving sideways might be the best outcome for now.
If BTC breaks through 90506 with volume, chase on the right; if it breaks down 90259 with volume and fails to recover on the retest, chase short on the right and set tight stop-losses.
On the hourly chart, if BTC breaks out and holds above 90457, look for 91375-92289. If it doesn't break out, it's always these two levels.
On the 4-hour chart, if 89814 breaks, look down to 88888-87669. If 89814 is broken and not recovered, 88888 likely won't hold either.
Looking at the chart: On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC is fighting to hold the 20 and 50 EMA. If it can hold above the 20 and 50 EMA on the 4-hour, there's a chance to test the 200 EMA. If it breaks below the 20 and 50 EMA, 87882 is a 4-hour support. If that doesn't hold, 83770 is waiting below. Nothing much else to say—let's wait for the US stock market to open. Without the US market open, there won’t be a clear direction, it's been like this lately: during the day it's like a zombie, and only at night do we get volatility.
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