Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Bitcoin Scarcity Gets Real as 403K BTC Leaves Exchanges Original Link:

Bitcoin Scarcity Gets Real as 403K BTC Leaves Exchanges

• Bitcoin’s exchange supply fell from 1.8M BTC to about 1.2M BTC year over year.
• Exchange-held BTC dropped from 8.13% to 6.04% of total supply.
• Technical levels show BTC holding above $88K while testing resistance near $92,500

Bitcoin scarcity has started getting real as BTC supply across exchanges has continued to decline.

Trading close to $90,000 this week, new data from Santiment reported that a net 403,200 BTC moved off exchanges between December 7, 2024, and December 7, 2025. The move marks a 2.09% reduction in Bitcoin’s total circulating supply held on trading platforms.

Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Falls From 8.13% to 6.04%

Santiment’s chart shows that exchanges held roughly 1.8 million BTC on December 7, 2024, representing 8.13% of all Bitcoin. By December 7, 2025, balances dropped to about 1.2 million BTC, or 6.04% of supply.

The most notable movement occurred between late May and late June 2025, when exchange-held coins fell sharply during a four-week period. The decline was followed by sideways consolidation through the second half of the year, with no significant return of supply to trading platforms.

Santiment said lower exchange reserves coincide with reduced sell pressure because off-exchange coins are less likely to be moved quickly into the market.

Price Holds Above Key Support While Volatility Persists

Bitcoin’s price trades at $90,023, down by 1.5% in the past day, reducing its weekly gain to 3.6%. With this, BTC has seen 11% and 9.6% downturns in the past month and year, respectively.

Notably, the asset reached an all-time high above $126,000 in October before pulling back by 28% to this level. Price action has since tightened, with support forming near $88,000.

Technical charts show BTC attempting to establish a higher low structure after declining through October and November. A break above $92,500 would open the door toward short-term resistance near $97,000, while a drop below $88,000 may expose the $84,000 support region.

On-chain supply trends suggest reduced structural downside risk, although price still reacts to derivatives positioning and macroeconomic events.

Analysts Mention Indicators of Next Bitcoin Move

Looking at Liquidity as an indicator of the next Bitcoin’s move, crypto analyst Goos noted that “something big might be coming for Bitcoin” after spotting early signs of stress in U.S. liquidity markets.

A sudden rise in repo activity, similar to the warning signals seen before the 2019–2020 liquidity crunch, is emerging just as the Fed continues tightening. The developing pattern mirrors conditions that preceded Bitcoin’s major 2021 rally, suggesting the market may be nearing another key macro shift.

In a separate analysis, the weekly RSI suggests a possible 2026 bullish move for Bitcoin. Analyst Ash Crypto noted that Bitcoin has only touched the weekly 36-RSI five times in history. This happened in 2015, 2018, the COVID-19 crash, 2022, and now 2025. Each past instance preceded a strong upward trend, suggesting a bullish 2026 for Bitcoin.