Ethereum Price Prediction: Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern Emerges, ETH Faces 50% Downside Risk

Since hitting a cycle low of around $2,620 in early November, Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded over 20%, returning above $3,000 as of December 9. However, both technical patterns and on-chain data are signaling further downside, suggesting ETH may weaken again in the coming months.

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently forming a classic inverse cup and handle pattern, which typically signals a deeper pullback and points to a mid-term target around $1,500. This pattern began when ETH topped out near $4,100 in August and subsequently fell below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, forming a rounded top. Entering the "handle" phase, ETH has stayed within an ascending channel but has repeatedly struggled to break the $3,150 area in the short term, with the 50-day moving average also exerting pressure in this zone. If ETH breaks below the lower channel boundary at around $2,900, it would confirm a continued downtrend and validate the inverse cup and handle pattern's $1,500 target. This range also overlaps with a key support zone for Ethereum since 2024, amplifying the risk.

Unless ETH reclaims the $3,300-$3,450 range, the overall trend remains bearish. (Source: TradingView)

On-chain data also points to rising risk. On December 5, mainstream CEXs saw the largest single-day inflow since May 2023, with 162,000 ETH net deposited to exchanges. CryptoOnChain notes that large inflows typically indicate that holders may be preparing to sell some assets. Given ETH is currently below key moving averages, such inflows often foreshadow sharp short-term price swings or accelerated declines. Even modest market selling of this newly deposited ETH could put significant pressure on the fragile upward channel, potentially pushing the price below the critical $2,900 level and once again targeting the $1,500 technical objective.

Overall, while Ethereum has maintained a short-term rebound, both technical patterns and on-chain signals lean toward downside risk. In the coming weeks, the $2,900 support will be a key level determining ETH's trend. #美联储降息预测