Is it really happening this time?

The folks on Wall Street are starting to change their tune. Previously, their reports were full of hype, but now they're all rewriting their prediction models. The CME FedWatch Tool data is right there—the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut this Thursday have soared to 89.6%. Global markets are holding their breath, waiting for the answer.

The three major U.S. stock indices? Classic wait-and-see posture. The Dow and S&P pulled back slightly, while the Nasdaq barely moved, dropping just 0.01%—almost as if it didn’t drop at all. Individual stocks, though, had their own agendas: Nvidia rose 0.64%, Tesla dropped 2.70%, Google and Apple also fell, by 1.3% and 0.56% respectively. The market is waiting for the other shoe to drop.

What’s even more critical is the chain reaction. Analysts are all watching closely—if the Fed makes a move, it basically sets the tone for policy decisions by the central banks of Switzerland, the UK, Europe, and Japan in late December. It’s a situation where one move affects the whole system.

The US Dollar Index wobbled and then surged, breaking past the 99 mark. The offshore RMB retreated to 7.07, gold fell 0.32%, silver dropped even more at 0.69%, and crude oil futures tumbled over 1%. The commodities market is already starting to react in advance.

White House economic advisor Hassett (rumored to be a top candidate for the next Fed chair) said on Monday: the rate cuts should continue. He also speculated that current chair Powell might also think a rate cut is the prudent choice.

Right now, the main question is how the Fed reaches a consensus internally. No matter how they settle their differences, let’s just wait and watch the show.