The recent disclosure by BNY Mellon regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy movements has revealed a contradictory signal—an apparent rate cut, but a de facto tightening.

This operation, referred to by the market as a "hawkish rate cut," essentially means a symbolic small rate decrease with one hand, while explicitly declaring no large-scale liquidity injections before 2026 with the other. Liquidity appears to be loosening, but in reality, the market is being put under a "time lock."

Over the next 24 months, crypto assets will remain under pressure. Any minor policy adjustment could trigger a chain reaction, with volatility amplified to an astonishing degree.

The internal divisions shown in the dot plot? That may well be a deliberately designed smokescreen.

Putting policy uncertainty on the table conveniently creates market panic. When retail investors flee in a hurry due to information confusion, where does the capital flow? The answer is self-evident. Coupled with the uncertainty of a change in chairperson, policy continuity is questionable, making it difficult for average investors to grasp the true direction.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are now deeply tied to the macro monetary cycle.

The benefits brought by rate cuts are offset by the hawkish stance. Funds are entering the market more cautiously, and market sensitivity is extremely high. A single news story or data point could trigger violent swings.

But from another perspective—panic often breeds opportunity. When everyone is selling, undervalued high-quality assets are more likely to emerge.

If you want to survive this round of turmoil, or even seize the opportunity, you must engrave three principles in your mind:

First, position management is your lifeline. Don't bet everything on a single judgment; keep enough cash on hand so you have the capital to strike back when the market truly bottoms out.

Second, keep a close eye on data and policy statements. Every speech by the Fed and every economic report is a weathervane. If you don't understand it, don't rush to act. In times of uncertainty, staying on the sidelines is safer than trading blindly.

Third, stay calm. The crypto market has never lacked for stories and emotions, but what survives the cycle is always rationality and discipline.

The essence of a "hawkish rate cut" is as a catalyst for market shakeout—it eliminates blind followers and creates entry opportunities for those who are prepared.

Crisis and opportunity coexist; the key is which side you stand on.