12.8 ETH Evening Market Analysis

I. Core Logic Support

1. Macro + Capital Dual Support: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is as high as 87%. The US stock market's strength signals increased risk appetite. ETH ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $315 million, with institutional funds continuously providing support and no signs of panic withdrawal.
2. Strengthening Technical Structure: On the 4-hour chart, highs and lows are rising; the 1-hour chart holds above the key 3050 moving average; ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken through the 30-day consolidation range, confirming a structural advantage.
3. Clear Supply and Demand Pattern: After testing the 2900-2920 bottom, ETH quickly rebounded by over 200 points, forming a bear trap rally pattern. Buying support is strong, and the long-short battle at key price levels is clear.

II. Trend Qualitative Assessment

Consolidation with a bullish bias, breakout pending confirmation: ETH is currently in the 3100-3220 core consolidation zone, with 3100-3080 as the short-term bullish defense line below, and 3180-3220 as a strong resistance area above. Daily MACD is expanding upwards, EMA indicator is contracting, bearish momentum is weakening, but a clear one-sided trend has not yet formed. Need to wait for either a resistance breakout or support breakdown to confirm direction.

III. Operational Targets (Execution by Scenario)

1. Bullish Strategy (Priority)

- Entry Timing: Stabilize at the 3100-3080 support zone (e.g., long lower shadow, low-volume sideways movement), or a volume breakout above 3180 resistance
- Target Levels: First target 3220-3250, second target 3350-3400 (follow up after breaking 3220)
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